Carlos Sainz Jnr, McLaren, Monza, 2020

Why fighting Mercedes makes little sense for their closest rival at Monza

2020 Italian Grand Prix pre-race analysis

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Mercedes and Ferrari fought it out on race day in F1’s last two visits to Monza. But there’s little chance Mercedes will face much competition at the front of the field in Sunday’s Italian Grand Prix.

The ‘quali mode’ ban did not prevent the team sweeping the front row of the grid by eight-tenths of a second. Meanwhile Ferrari languish in 13th and 17th places for their first of three home races on the 2020 F1 calendar.

The closest challenger to Mercedes on the track is McLaren, who emerged on top of a close midfield scrap with Racing Point, Red Bull and Renault. Carlos Sainz Jnr planted his MCL35 third on the grid.

Could they take up the fight against Mercedes? Realistically, given how the race is likely to play out the tyre performance and restrictions on strategies, there’s little reason to think they will.

F1’s regulations force the teams to make at least one pit stop, which is one more than they are likely to need at a track where tyre degradation is very low. The race will therefore be the usual matter of timing that pit stop to maximise opportunity and/or limit damage to a driver’s track position.

Given this, McLaren know there’s little to be gained by trying to fight on a much quicker Mercedes which, in the unlikely event it can’t pass them with DRS on the straight, is very likely to get ahead of them in the pits.

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“If you could jump one on Mercedes, for example at the start, then you obviously need to find the right balance,” said McLaren team principal Andreas Seidl. “Does it actually make sense to fight these guys or try to keep them behind? Because it could be that you in the end lose more performance by trying to do something which is simply not possible.”

Valtteri Bottas, Mercedes, Monza, 2020
The black cars are in a class of their own
The top 10 qualifiers will all start on the soft tyres and will likely extend their first stints until they can pit for mediums and run to the end. An early Safety Car period may see them opt for hards instead. But it’s doubtful they’ll find themselves having to manage significant tyre drop-off at the end of the race, as happened at Spa.

With Max Verstappen fifth on the grid, Red Bull can be expected to go aggressive on strategy. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see them go for an early stop. Renault, who have Daniel Ricciardo seventh on the grid, may also be emboldened to attempt a short first stint in a bid to gain positions having seen how well their car performed towards the end of a long second stint at Spa.

Having qualified three places ahead of Verstappen, Valtteri Bottas has a strong chance of moving ahead of him in the drivers’ championship on Sunday. His real target, however, is his team mate, who is 50 points ahead of him in the title fight.

Bottas simply must take some points off Lewis Hamilton for the first time since the season started if he is to have any hope of keeping him from the championship. A decent start – something Bottas has found hard to come by on occasions this year – would help a lot on the long run to turn one.

But, of course, Hamilton knows this too. It was striking how eager he was to make an extra start from the pits during final practice this morning to ensure he has every possible scrap of information available to him for the all-important moment when the red lights go out.

Quotes: Dieter Rencken

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Sector times

DriverSector 1Sector 2Sector 3
Lewis Hamilton26.566 (1)26.180 (1)26.014 (2)
Valtteri Bottas26.605 (2)26.281 (2)25.961 (1)
Carlos Sainz Jnr26.661 (4)26.651 (4)26.238 (4)
Sergio Perez26.693 (5)26.669 (5)26.226 (3)
Max Verstappen26.743 (6)26.632 (3)26.303 (7)
Lando Norris26.773 (9)26.712 (7)26.296 (6)
Daniel Ricciardo26.615 (3)26.767 (10)26.449 (11)
Lance Stroll26.787 (10)26.700 (6)26.364 (8)
Alexander Albon26.759 (7)26.802 (11)26.394 (9)
Pierre Gasly26.768 (8)26.729 (8)26.279 (5)
Daniil Kvyat26.871 (12)26.732 (9)26.438 (10)
Esteban Ocon26.842 (11)26.893 (13)26.467 (12)
Charles Leclerc26.873 (13)26.875 (12)26.525 (13)
Kimi Raikkonen26.912 (14)27.093 (15)26.855 (15)
Kevin Magnussen26.913 (15)26.997 (14)26.892 (16)
Romain Grosjean27.004 (16)27.126 (16)26.985 (19)
Sebastian Vettel27.116 (18)27.257 (19)26.778 (14)
Antonio Giovinazzi27.100 (17)27.175 (18)26.931 (17)
George Russell27.240 (19)27.367 (20)26.980 (18)
Nicholas Latifi27.333 (20)27.135 (17)27.241 (20)

Speed trap

PosDriverCarEngineSpeed (kph/mph)Gap
1Kimi RaikkonenAlfa RomeoFerrari354.5 (220.3)
2Esteban OconRenaultRenault349.0 (216.9)-5.5
3Sergio PerezRacing PointMercedes348.4 (216.5)-6.1
4Lance StrollRacing PointMercedes344.3 (213.9)-10.2
5Pierre GaslyToro RossoHonda343.9 (213.7)-10.6
6Daniil KvyatToro RossoHonda343.5 (213.4)-11.0
7Daniel RicciardoRenaultRenault342.9 (213.1)-11.6
8Alexander AlbonRed BullHonda342.8 (213.0)-11.7
9Lewis HamiltonMercedesMercedes341.4 (212.1)-13.1
10Romain GrosjeanHaasFerrari341.1 (211.9)-13.4
11Antonio GiovinazziAlfa RomeoFerrari340.0 (211.3)-14.5
12Kevin MagnussenHaasFerrari339.8 (211.1)-14.7
13Nicholas LatifiWilliamsMercedes339.4 (210.9)-15.1
14Charles LeclercFerrariFerrari339.1 (210.7)-15.4
15Lando NorrisMcLarenRenault339.1 (210.7)-15.4
16Max VerstappenRed BullHonda338.6 (210.4)-15.9
17Carlos Sainz JnrMcLarenRenault338.0 (210.0)-16.5
18Valtteri BottasMercedesMercedes337.8 (209.9)-16.7
19George RussellWilliamsMercedes337.3 (209.6)-17.2
20Sebastian VettelFerrariFerrari334.5 (207.8)-20.0

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Over to you

Which of the Mercedes drivers will win at Monza – and who will be closest to them? And can Ferrari score any points at home?

Share your views on the Italian Grand Prix in the comments.

2020 Italian Grand Prix

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Author information

Keith Collantine
Lifelong motor sport fan Keith set up RaceFans in 2005 - when it was originally called F1 Fanatic. Having previously worked as a motoring...

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17 comments on “Why fighting Mercedes makes little sense for their closest rival at Monza”

  1. Dont worry about calculation: Verstappen will take out himself and other two drivers on the first corner.

  2. I feel a bit bad for mclaren. They are doing great things but because of total mercedes domination their achievements are somewhat hidden. But in the shadows mclaren is making the fight in the f1.5 really interesting. It would be amazing season if merc didn’t exist. Of course it is not their fault the others designed so slow cars. But the domination is hurting f1. Without mercs we would have great fight for the wins in every race and the championship would be open and exciting. Mclaren, renault, racing point and red bull (sans max) with the alpha tauris sometimes there too. The fight in f1.5 is pretty amazing and would be even greater if it was for wins.

    1. Next year McLaren will have the same engine @socksolid, and by 2022 they should have new infrastructure including a shiny new smart windtunnel.

      Personally I although I like Lewis I try not to get too tribal, and just be awed by excellence, and that means I get to enjoy both F1.0 and F1.5, and also it means the prospect of McLaren getting back up there against the extremely awesome Mercedes is something that will be seriously impressive – more that if Mercedes were less amazing, if you see what I mean. Same if Red Bull Honda can do it.

    2. If Mercedes were not in F1, Verstappen and Red Bull would be running away with both championships…. Think about it, Verstappen has finished 3rd or 2nd in almost every race. Albon is nowhere with Verstappen in comparison to the gap between Hamilton and Bottas. At least Bottas keeps Hamilton close in qualifying…

    3. They are all in F1 and it’s simply each team’s responsibility to build the fastest car.

      Fans should be educated in this aspect and watch Merc or whoever else shows absolute domination.

    4. Don’t forget ferrari, if you mention teams that would be competitive in a non-mercedes formula, despite the recent bad results, overall as a season ferrari is up there.

  3. Andreas. One of the fascinating things about F1 is how the team is such a huge thing and yet the individuals make such a difference.

    Anyway it was qualy that was supposed to be where Merc came back to everyone, they didn’t whatsoever, now they’re about to be even further ahead in the race, with average mode which has Party DNA in it.

  4. It’s not really something that needs to be discussed. McLaren isn’t capable of taking the fight to Mercedes even if they wanted to. Unless I missed some penalties and they’re not starting 1-2. They’ll be 5 seconds clear by lap 3 even if Sainz is giving it everything.

  5. Ferrari engine topping speed traps… opss

    1. Räikkönen was very much in Ocon’s slipstream and it ruined his lap.

  6. FIA Foolish Insanely Always!
    “Technical Directive(s)” Ummm….
    WELL? Rule Changes actually!
    Watch them for the next Mercedes nobbling & hobbling
    jiggery pokery……..

  7. Which of the Mercedes drivers will win at Monza – and who will be closest to them? – HAM and VER.
    And can Ferrari score any points at home? – No.

    1. First prediction is pretty obvious ofc, unless something big happens, accidents or reliability, 2nd I think ferrari can score points, it’s not too far fetched with their current performance, especially with a couple retirements ahead.

  8. Jelle van der Meer (@)
    6th September 2020, 7:58

    If they were on any other circuit The most likely outcome would be Lewis, Bottas and Max on podium with the rest 30+ seconds behind.

    With Red Bull down on top speed, no impressive race pace during Friday practice I have my doubts if Max can actually get close to the podium.

  9. With Max Verstappen fifth on the grid, Red Bull can be expected to go aggressive on strategy. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see them go for an early stop. Renault, who have Daniel Ricciardo seventh on the grid, may also be emboldened to attempt a short first stint in a bid to gain positions having seen how well their car performed towards the end of a long second stint at Spa.

    I fear Red Bull might exactly do that, as they tend to go for aggressive strategies. Usually, the undercut is not going to give you much in terms of track position, as everyone else will just pit on the next lap. Staying out longer may allow you to overcut the opposition if your race pace is far better (which Ricciardo did in 2017), or pass a train of cars towards the end of the race on fresher tires (which Ricciardo did in 2014).

  10. I’ve abandoned hope to see Bottas ever attacking Hamilton after the start, now I’m praying for a torpedo to take out at least one of them in the first corner.

Comments are closed.